***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.7 31.5 2.2 75.1 74.0 28.0 28.6 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.3 31.7 2.1 73.6 72.2 27.1 28.9 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 30.4 31.0 31.4 2.0 74.3 72.2 28.1 28.8 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.3 23.4 27.9 1.3 70.1 67.7 21.5 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.0 30.8 28.8 1.1 67.4 64.9 28.6 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 26.8 26.6 23.1 -1.8 24.3 29.5 27.5 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 30.4 31.1 31.5 2.1 73.2 71.8 27.3 28.6 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.5 25.2 -0.2 52.6 51.1 16.3 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.8 30.2 1.8 72.9 71.7 28.0 28.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 28.9 30.1 27.2 0.7 62.4 60.5 27.7 28.5 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.3 30.1 28.5 0.6 62.3 59.3 28.1 28.7 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 26.4 -0.2 51.9 51.0 27.2 27.9 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.0 26.4 -0.8 42.8 43.6 28.4 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 30.3 30.5 29.9 1.9 73.6 71.7 27.6 28.7 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.0 31.0 30.0 1.0 66.5 64.5 29.8 30.4 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.4 27.2 -0.1 53.3 52.2 29.0 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.8 31.2 2.1 73.0 71.9 26.6 28.3 30.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.4 28.8 26.1 0.5 61.7 58.8 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.1 31.8 2.3 76.7 74.6 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.2 22.7 -0.8 45.0 44.2 22.8 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.6 30.8 1.5 69.7 68.7 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.8 30.7 1.7 71.6 70.0 27.3 28.8 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 30.7 31.7 32.2 2.9 82.2 79.4 28.0 28.4 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.8 29.9 29.4 1.5 70.3 68.0 27.5 27.9 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.5 31.0 30.0 1.8 70.5 70.0 28.2 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 28.1 28.5 24.5 -1.5 33.3 35.3 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.5 30.7 2.0 72.8 72.5 27.7 28.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.3 30.5 28.1 0.5 59.7 58.8 29.8 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 23.6 23.5 24.9 0.1 56.1 54.1 22.4 23.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.8 31.6 2.0 73.5 72.1 27.4 28.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------