***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.4 20.1 1.7 91.6 86.8 15.6 16.1 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.8 17.1 19.7 1.5 85.8 82.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 18.8 19.2 20.3 1.7 92.5 87.5 17.7 18.0 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 14.4 15.2 17.6 1.5 90.8 85.2 13.1 13.6 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 14.9 15.6 17.6 1.3 89.7 83.8 14.2 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 14.3 0.3 64.7 58.9 12.9 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 16.8 17.5 20.1 1.7 90.2 85.0 15.5 16.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.5 9.7 14.6 0.7 79.7 72.7 8.7 9.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 16.3 17.2 17.8 1.5 92.6 87.3 15.2 15.7 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 16.1 16.5 15.8 1.0 84.7 78.7 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 15.9 16.1 16.8 1.1 87.6 80.9 14.8 15.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.9 14.0 15.6 0.9 81.8 75.3 12.8 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.8 14.6 0.3 63.4 60.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 16.8 17.2 17.4 1.2 86.9 81.7 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 17.3 18.2 19.0 1.4 90.6 86.1 16.3 16.9 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 16.4 16.6 16.0 0.8 78.5 74.6 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 17.3 17.5 19.4 1.4 84.2 81.3 16.1 16.6 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.7 14.9 14.8 0.8 80.9 75.1 13.2 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 16.5 16.9 19.9 1.6 87.7 84.4 15.6 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 10.2 10.4 12.4 0.4 69.2 64.8 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 15.9 16.8 19.1 1.5 91.4 85.8 15.1 15.5 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 16.2 16.4 19.3 1.3 83.0 79.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 16.0 16.5 19.9 1.8 93.3 89.3 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 16.7 17.0 17.3 1.2 88.0 82.7 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.2 16.7 18.7 1.4 88.6 82.7 15.0 15.8 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.8 14.3 0.4 66.6 62.0 14.2 14.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.2 19.4 1.6 90.1 85.1 15.2 16.0 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 15.1 15.3 17.7 1.2 86.9 82.0 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 0.6 74.6 69.5 12.9 13.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 16.9 17.3 20.2 1.6 89.8 85.1 15.5 16.4 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------