***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.07.2017.-06.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 17.8 18.4 20.9 2.4 88.4 79.5 15.3 16.7 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 17.5 18.5 20.5 2.1 86.5 75.6 15.0 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 19.4 21.0 21.2 2.4 90.1 80.7 17.2 18.3 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 15.3 15.9 18.4 2.1 89.8 80.1 12.5 14.4 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.4 17.2 18.1 2.0 88.2 79.0 13.7 14.7 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 14.4 14.8 15.4 1.0 78.3 68.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.8 20.9 2.3 89.7 78.3 15.2 16.3 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.1 15.6 1.4 79.2 73.4 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 17.4 18.1 18.4 2.1 89.1 80.0 14.9 16.3 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 17.1 17.9 16.5 1.7 82.3 75.7 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 16.7 17.5 17.5 1.8 85.7 78.6 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.7 15.8 16.4 1.6 82.3 75.5 13.0 13.8 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.5 15.2 1.1 80.3 69.9 14.5 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 17.8 18.2 18.0 1.7 83.9 76.3 15.6 16.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 18.4 19.6 19.7 2.2 89.1 81.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 17.4 18.2 16.7 1.6 84.5 76.3 15.3 16.2 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 18.0 18.6 20.1 1.9 83.3 73.8 15.9 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.5 15.4 1.4 78.8 73.4 13.7 14.5 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 17.4 17.9 20.6 2.1 85.8 76.3 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 11.7 11.4 12.8 0.9 70.8 67.0 9.8 10.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 17.1 17.8 19.9 2.2 88.4 79.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 17.0 17.5 19.8 1.7 80.6 72.5 15.1 15.7 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 16.9 17.5 20.5 2.2 87.8 79.1 14.7 16.1 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 17.5 17.9 17.8 1.8 85.1 77.7 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 17.5 18.1 19.3 2.2 86.4 78.1 14.7 16.5 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.7 15.2 1.3 82.0 71.7 13.9 14.7 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 17.9 19.0 20.1 2.4 88.4 79.2 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 15.8 17.1 18.5 2.0 88.2 79.4 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 14.8 14.8 14.7 1.1 75.8 70.4 13.0 13.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 17.8 19.0 20.9 2.3 88.8 78.0 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------