***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.9 17.7 21.2 2.6 89.5 84.4 15.1 16.1 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 16.7 17.6 20.8 2.3 86.4 81.8 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 19.0 19.8 21.3 2.5 88.8 85.1 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 15.1 16.3 18.4 2.2 87.8 82.2 12.3 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 15.4 16.0 18.6 2.1 86.5 81.8 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.7 14.9 0.7 69.8 63.4 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 17.2 18.2 21.1 2.5 88.8 83.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 10.1 10.5 15.4 1.3 78.6 73.3 8.4 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 16.6 17.1 18.9 2.3 91.0 85.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.0 16.7 1.7 84.2 78.6 14.6 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 16.3 16.7 17.8 1.7 85.0 79.5 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.3 14.7 16.5 1.4 81.4 74.5 12.6 13.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 15.3 15.6 15.6 0.9 73.0 66.3 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 17.4 17.7 18.4 2.0 86.7 82.8 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 18.6 19.2 19.9 2.1 89.7 84.0 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.5 17.2 16.9 1.4 81.5 74.5 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 17.8 18.2 20.4 2.2 85.9 81.2 16.1 16.9 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.3 15.7 1.4 82.7 75.5 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.9 17.5 20.9 2.4 87.3 83.2 15.4 15.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.9 11.1 13.3 1.0 75.5 68.9 9.4 10.3 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 16.4 16.9 20.1 2.3 88.7 83.9 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 16.5 16.9 20.4 2.1 85.2 80.8 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 16.5 16.7 21.0 2.7 89.8 86.9 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 16.9 17.5 18.3 2.0 87.2 82.0 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.3 19.8 2.3 86.9 82.2 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.5 15.2 1.0 72.6 66.4 13.9 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.9 17.5 20.4 2.5 88.6 82.9 14.5 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 15.9 16.2 18.5 1.9 87.1 80.2 13.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.8 14.8 1.2 78.2 72.8 12.1 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.9 18.0 21.2 2.5 87.9 83.4 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------