***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.07.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.8 18.4 0.2 56.0 55.8 14.9 15.6 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 16.3 16.1 18.0 -0.1 50.0 51.6 14.5 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 17.6 17.9 18.5 0.1 54.1 55.3 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 15.7 -0.2 51.2 49.6 12.1 12.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.9 16.0 -0.3 49.3 47.8 12.7 13.9 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 11.3 10.8 12.0 -1.4 23.4 24.4 11.5 12.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 16.1 16.2 18.5 0.2 55.4 56.4 15.0 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.8 12.6 -0.9 35.0 35.3 7.8 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 15.3 15.4 16.4 0.0 56.6 54.5 14.3 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.2 14.6 14.0 -0.5 44.3 43.2 14.1 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.0 15.1 -0.7 42.0 40.8 13.7 14.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 11.6 13.8 -0.8 37.8 38.0 11.5 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 12.3 11.6 12.9 -1.5 18.9 23.9 12.4 13.9 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 15.9 15.2 15.6 -0.6 43.7 43.7 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.3 17.3 -0.2 51.9 50.5 15.5 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 13.9 14.2 -1.0 33.4 34.2 13.9 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 17.0 16.9 17.7 -0.2 51.6 50.9 15.9 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.8 12.8 13.2 -0.8 40.2 38.6 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 16.0 15.9 18.2 0.1 54.5 55.3 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.2 11.0 -1.0 34.8 33.8 8.1 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.3 15.3 17.4 -0.1 53.2 51.7 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 15.3 15.0 17.7 -0.3 48.1 48.5 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.5 18.5 0.5 64.1 62.1 14.4 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.4 15.7 -0.5 45.0 44.4 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.2 17.1 -0.2 49.5 49.4 14.0 15.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 12.5 11.9 12.0 -1.6 19.8 23.8 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.8 17.7 0.0 52.7 52.3 14.3 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.4 13.7 15.7 -0.5 45.7 44.0 12.6 14.1 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.6 12.2 -1.0 33.5 33.5 11.6 12.9 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 16.4 16.3 18.5 0.2 54.7 55.8 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------