***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 68.3 67.8 59.3 147.6 74.5 65.8 28.0 33.6 50.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 53.5 56.8 47.7 128.0 68.3 57.3 38.2 46.7 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 65.1 66.8 59.0 146.1 73.7 64.3 30.3 38.8 48.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 58.1 68.8 50.6 128.7 69.7 62.3 46.5 52.4 58.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 41.0 56.8 54.0 137.4 71.4 64.8 25.5 35.3 54.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 69.7 69.3 56.6 130.2 70.8 64.1 35.4 51.2 65.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 45.5 51.9 45.1 120.2 64.7 55.4 27.2 39.8 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 92.8 107.6 67.0 148.5 75.2 68.8 45.6 64.3 91.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 64.0 71.7 60.8 143.7 72.5 65.8 28.4 44.8 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 71.2 76.5 70.2 143.1 73.0 66.7 42.8 50.6 61.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 56.2 61.5 54.1 142.4 74.2 67.4 26.5 41.9 51.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 68.6 81.8 54.4 155.2 77.8 70.2 30.1 45.8 56.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 47.7 52.2 51.5 142.4 72.1 66.4 24.5 33.5 42.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 84.1 87.0 72.0 138.9 71.9 63.1 42.2 61.6 79.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 41.3 50.6 37.6 118.4 69.5 59.1 21.3 30.6 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 44.6 46.5 48.1 135.2 71.0 65.2 23.9 33.4 40.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 55.5 67.1 42.2 111.9 64.0 52.1 29.0 49.1 67.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 71.4 79.4 78.6 143.4 75.7 67.3 38.0 49.3 64.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 56.8 71.5 51.2 133.1 69.9 59.0 34.3 48.6 66.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 66.0 67.0 77.5 139.7 73.7 67.4 34.8 49.3 59.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 55.9 55.9 58.3 141.1 71.7 64.2 30.4 38.1 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 55.7 58.6 45.4 114.3 63.3 53.0 37.5 52.5 59.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 50.3 62.5 56.0 136.1 71.3 60.9 31.5 44.1 51.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 78.7 85.5 70.3 143.3 73.9 65.1 40.8 52.3 77.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 55.1 58.7 63.5 145.5 73.9 65.4 36.3 44.7 54.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 53.2 57.4 41.8 144.5 73.3 67.4 24.8 41.0 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 66.2 68.4 63.6 146.1 74.0 65.3 32.5 39.6 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 39.2 63.8 44.8 124.0 70.2 62.0 22.0 28.0 45.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 97.0 108.1 81.6 144.5 76.3 68.8 60.3 74.9 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 44.3 50.8 51.3 135.3 71.2 60.2 25.4 39.8 49.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------