***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 12.4 7.0 71.9 62.7 44.8 0.3 8.4 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 11.6 6.6 72.3 59.4 45.6 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.0 6.5 66.0 56.2 44.7 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.8 15.4 6.7 75.0 64.9 44.7 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.3 12.7 5.7 61.0 59.9 40.6 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.2 14.0 7.1 70.3 61.8 42.7 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 4.9 6.9 75.2 59.2 45.8 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.4 20.4 8.8 77.4 60.3 46.6 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.7 13.9 6.8 66.8 59.9 41.8 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.3 15.0 8.9 73.9 59.8 44.7 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.2 18.1 5.7 66.5 62.2 41.8 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.9 12.0 6.2 69.4 60.8 43.9 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.1 9.2 6.3 71.3 65.7 42.8 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.3 8.3 63.8 52.2 42.5 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.1 16.7 5.3 73.7 67.4 46.5 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.1 12.9 5.8 70.8 65.6 42.3 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.3 12.3 7.1 75.0 61.6 45.7 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.1 10.8 79.3 58.4 44.8 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.4 6.3 67.6 57.3 45.4 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 13.7 12.3 87.6 60.1 48.2 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.3 6.5 64.1 59.5 43.8 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.8 7.3 71.9 60.7 45.0 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.8 5.9 59.4 53.6 44.5 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.2 18.4 8.4 68.7 55.0 43.0 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.8 15.3 8.2 78.6 66.2 46.2 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.9 5.2 71.3 63.4 45.8 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 10.8 8.3 80.4 65.4 46.2 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.7 10.8 6.1 75.3 67.2 45.7 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 19.8 11.6 82.8 58.8 46.3 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.0 6.6 71.8 58.8 45.0 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------