***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 21.1 10.5 108.6 71.2 54.8 1.6 8.0 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.8 22.5 11.1 119.3 75.3 53.6 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.1 19.4 12.8 122.3 73.8 55.2 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.8 14.7 10.8 107.7 72.5 56.4 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.1 16.7 10.8 115.0 73.9 58.7 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.7 17.3 13.2 129.2 75.1 59.4 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.0 22.2 10.3 111.3 74.0 54.6 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 23.6 13.2 133.1 74.6 61.2 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 20.2 11.4 111.8 73.3 56.7 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 22.3 13.8 122.5 73.3 59.3 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.6 18.5 9.1 112.6 72.4 59.9 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 15.8 10.2 129.3 75.9 60.0 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.3 15.5 10.2 117.5 75.1 59.1 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.8 19.0 17.9 125.6 72.2 54.3 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.2 7.5 7.9 98.7 72.2 56.5 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.8 10.7 8.8 107.3 72.3 58.4 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.1 23.1 9.6 107.2 72.5 55.5 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.7 20.7 17.2 122.4 72.2 58.2 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.7 28.7 12.5 124.6 75.6 53.6 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 17.1 17.4 125.6 72.0 59.3 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 23.7 10.8 109.2 74.1 55.7 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 14.3 11.9 117.7 74.2 54.8 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.3 16.5 14.2 128.7 74.8 52.6 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.9 19.1 16.5 123.1 74.0 56.7 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.2 14.3 11.2 108.6 71.5 56.4 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 13.2 17.4 10.6 154.1 79.0 63.6 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 20.6 11.3 108.1 70.7 54.5 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.0 13.6 9.6 106.6 72.8 57.2 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 27.6 17.7 120.3 71.0 58.5 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 21.0 11.6 119.7 75.1 52.5 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------