***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 18.3 29.9 21.7 186.0 83.1 67.1 0.4 2.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.7 11.7 17.8 170.9 79.3 65.4 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 23.8 36.7 23.7 205.9 84.2 71.9 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.2 34.5 21.6 205.8 84.1 72.2 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.7 20.9 20.4 188.6 80.6 69.1 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 17.8 27.2 21.7 179.1 80.7 67.9 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.1 19.8 16.2 153.2 77.5 64.3 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 29.1 38.5 19.1 159.9 76.4 65.0 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.9 25.5 20.3 172.6 79.8 64.8 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.6 37.2 21.7 169.0 77.9 66.6 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 19.3 28.1 21.5 182.4 81.4 71.6 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 17.8 27.4 17.5 172.5 79.4 67.6 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 12.2 22.2 18.0 183.7 81.1 69.8 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 25.7 38.0 23.8 172.2 79.4 64.4 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.3 15.8 19.0 217.9 85.4 71.8 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 10.7 18.1 18.2 172.7 80.7 67.0 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.4 25.7 15.6 146.9 75.6 60.1 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.0 33.5 23.0 163.7 77.3 64.4 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.9 28.5 19.0 177.7 80.2 66.3 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 16.9 21.3 21.5 154.2 75.5 66.0 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 19.5 26.2 20.4 177.1 79.6 66.1 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.6 31.1 15.6 143.5 77.6 60.9 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 17.0 29.1 20.9 179.7 81.7 67.5 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 25.2 36.8 24.2 182.0 81.0 67.0 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 20.7 30.9 24.1 193.2 82.1 68.1 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 18.1 26.5 15.7 173.1 79.3 69.7 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.2 21.8 24.2 190.8 82.8 69.1 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 21.5 38.7 18.7 197.4 83.1 70.4 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 26.8 35.6 26.0 175.1 79.4 68.8 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 17.7 29.9 19.2 179.4 81.0 67.9 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------