***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 20.7 29.8 20.1 220.5 83.7 72.6 0.9 2.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.2 19.2 12.1 144.8 77.0 64.7 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 13.0 18.9 15.9 187.5 81.3 70.7 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 7.0 15.8 11.5 116.9 70.5 62.3 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 16.0 23.5 17.1 174.6 79.2 71.6 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 10.0 12.0 14.6 131.8 72.4 66.2 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 10.8 11.7 11.6 137.6 76.4 64.0 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 14.0 22.6 25.9 219.5 84.5 80.1 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 15.4 20.5 22.2 217.8 83.1 76.1 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 15.3 21.5 25.8 198.1 81.0 75.8 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 12.9 19.1 17.8 181.3 79.6 72.4 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 21.9 35.5 20.5 248.1 86.7 81.8 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 4.4 8.8 17.0 191.8 81.8 73.5 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 18.4 25.2 22.1 203.4 82.9 73.9 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 4.0 6.8 5.3 69.0 63.3 53.9 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.2 12.5 15.3 176.1 77.8 71.9 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.3 11.0 9.9 115.0 72.8 60.5 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 19.2 23.2 27.5 212.1 84.1 78.3 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.0 19.8 13.4 159.2 78.2 65.9 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 12.1 17.7 26.3 193.9 83.9 78.3 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 10.6 20.3 20.5 210.7 82.8 74.8 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 6.2 9.8 10.5 121.9 71.3 60.0 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.4 16.7 15.0 175.8 79.5 68.3 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 18.3 27.9 21.1 208.9 83.0 75.0 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 18.9 27.7 20.0 192.9 82.0 71.0 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 4.5 6.6 10.2 178.0 79.6 75.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.1 22.2 19.8 197.2 82.5 70.9 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 4.8 10.0 10.4 107.1 69.5 62.1 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.0 26.3 26.2 204.8 84.0 78.7 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.0 20.3 13.9 166.8 79.7 67.2 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------