***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.2 30.6 0.5 57.0 55.3 28.8 30.0 31.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.4 30.9 0.9 63.2 58.6 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 30.2 29.9 30.6 0.3 56.7 53.6 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.0 28.4 0.1 52.6 51.7 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 31.0 30.2 28.1 -0.4 46.4 46.8 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 29.8 29.0 25.5 -0.5 46.9 45.9 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.4 31.1 1.0 65.4 60.0 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.7 26.0 -0.8 45.7 43.0 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.4 29.6 28.2 -0.4 46.6 46.7 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.3 26.7 -0.6 46.8 44.6 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.1 27.7 -0.5 46.4 45.8 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 27.4 -0.7 46.1 44.0 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.9 30.4 26.6 -0.8 44.0 42.9 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.4 28.0 0.1 53.2 51.5 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 31.4 31.4 29.6 0.5 57.7 55.8 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.4 30.6 27.5 -0.5 47.6 46.2 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 29.3 30.6 31.1 1.4 69.5 63.5 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.6 26.2 -0.5 49.1 45.9 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.6 30.8 0.7 61.7 57.4 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.8 23.5 -0.8 46.6 42.5 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.1 29.4 -0.2 49.2 48.6 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 29.3 31.1 31.0 1.5 69.5 64.4 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 29.3 29.3 30.4 0.5 59.0 55.7 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.7 27.9 -0.2 51.1 49.0 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 30.6 30.2 28.6 0.0 50.6 51.1 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.3 27.6 -0.2 49.9 49.0 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.1 29.6 0.4 56.7 54.9 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 31.3 31.1 28.6 0.0 52.6 51.6 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.5 25.1 -0.6 48.0 45.0 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 30.0 30.2 30.8 0.7 61.6 57.2 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------