***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.1 28.1 -1.4 34.3 34.9 28.0 29.0 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.0 28.3 -1.5 35.3 35.9 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 26.3 28.0 27.8 -1.8 29.7 30.7 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 20.0 20.5 24.7 -2.0 23.8 25.5 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 27.5 27.3 25.4 -2.3 21.3 23.4 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 26.5 26.3 22.8 -2.1 24.8 25.8 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 29.1 28.3 28.5 -1.2 38.8 39.9 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 14.9 15.0 22.8 -2.6 21.2 21.4 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.5 27.3 26.5 -2.0 26.1 26.7 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 26.6 27.1 24.0 -2.4 24.3 24.0 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 26.6 27.0 25.5 -2.4 22.7 23.5 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 26.0 26.0 24.1 -2.4 22.3 22.8 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 27.3 27.5 25.0 -2.1 25.2 26.2 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 26.6 27.3 26.2 -1.9 28.2 29.7 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 28.6 29.4 27.8 -1.4 31.3 32.7 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 28.1 28.0 25.0 -2.2 23.5 24.4 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 28.5 28.3 28.7 -0.7 47.0 46.4 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 25.8 26.5 23.1 -2.4 23.9 24.6 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.4 28.0 -1.7 32.0 32.6 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 20.8 20.8 20.7 -2.6 20.4 21.8 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 26.7 27.1 27.3 -2.0 26.6 27.1 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 29.1 28.3 28.4 -0.8 45.1 44.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 26.9 27.5 27.8 -1.7 31.9 32.4 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 26.3 27.0 25.8 -2.1 26.5 27.1 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 26.9 28.0 26.4 -1.9 27.2 28.1 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 27.6 27.5 23.6 -2.3 25.2 24.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.5 28.0 27.4 -1.5 33.5 34.2 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 28.4 29.1 25.8 -1.8 25.0 27.3 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 20.8 21.2 22.3 -2.4 23.1 23.9 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.9 28.2 -1.6 33.7 34.0 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------