***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.5 19.3 0.7 72.5 68.3 15.4 16.1 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.8 19.3 0.8 74.0 69.4 15.1 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.6 19.5 0.6 69.9 66.8 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.1 16.9 0.5 69.0 66.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.7 16.8 0.3 63.3 61.3 14.2 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 13.7 13.6 14.7 0.5 67.0 65.2 13.0 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.8 19.5 0.8 73.2 68.9 15.4 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.1 14.1 0.1 54.6 54.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.0 16.9 0.4 66.2 62.9 15.2 15.8 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.8 15.1 0.2 58.8 57.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.5 16.2 0.3 60.2 59.4 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.6 15.0 0.1 54.3 54.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.7 14.8 0.3 60.5 60.4 14.1 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 16.7 16.6 16.8 0.5 65.6 65.5 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.3 17.4 18.6 0.8 77.0 72.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.3 15.7 0.4 63.9 61.5 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.4 19.3 1.1 77.2 73.5 16.0 16.7 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.4 14.4 0.3 64.4 61.1 13.2 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.4 19.2 0.7 70.8 67.6 15.5 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.2 12.2 0.2 60.3 57.6 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.9 15.8 18.3 0.4 66.5 63.7 15.1 15.6 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.3 19.3 1.0 75.5 73.0 14.8 15.6 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.8 19.0 0.6 67.7 65.9 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.5 16.8 0.5 69.1 65.9 15.4 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.1 17.9 0.5 67.7 63.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.9 14.8 14.5 0.5 67.7 65.1 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.5 18.6 0.6 72.0 67.4 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.9 15.0 17.3 0.6 71.9 68.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.2 13.7 0.2 60.4 58.0 12.8 13.1 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.8 16.8 19.5 0.7 71.8 67.8 15.6 16.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------