***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.8 16.7 19.5 0.8 70.6 62.9 15.0 16.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.5 19.5 1.0 74.0 64.9 14.6 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.5 19.7 0.8 68.7 63.0 17.4 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.2 13.9 17.0 0.6 62.9 60.8 12.7 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.8 15.2 16.5 0.3 61.4 57.5 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.1 13.8 15.0 0.6 67.0 63.3 13.1 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.8 16.9 19.7 1.1 73.5 64.9 15.1 16.0 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.1 14.5 0.5 63.7 59.0 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.3 16.6 0.4 65.0 59.2 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.0 15.2 0.4 64.3 59.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 16.1 0.4 63.5 58.4 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.0 15.2 0.5 64.6 59.7 12.9 13.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.2 14.6 0.4 62.0 59.4 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.8 16.8 0.5 66.8 60.8 15.7 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.4 17.1 18.5 0.8 68.1 64.7 16.2 16.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.7 15.5 0.4 63.1 59.8 15.4 16.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.2 17.3 19.4 1.1 76.6 66.4 15.3 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.9 14.4 0.5 65.7 61.0 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.9 19.5 0.9 73.1 64.2 15.3 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.3 12.2 0.5 64.6 60.3 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.1 18.2 0.5 64.9 60.1 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.2 19.3 1.1 76.4 66.1 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.2 19.1 0.8 71.1 63.4 14.3 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.9 16.6 0.6 67.4 61.8 15.8 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.3 17.8 0.6 64.1 60.1 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.2 14.6 0.7 69.7 63.6 14.3 15.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.1 18.6 0.7 68.0 62.1 14.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.1 17.3 0.7 64.6 62.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.6 13.8 0.5 64.4 60.4 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.9 17.2 19.7 1.0 71.4 64.3 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------