***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.8 20.0 1.1 69.0 67.5 15.6 16.4 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 17.3 17.7 20.1 1.3 72.0 69.3 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.4 19.3 20.1 1.0 67.7 66.2 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.1 14.9 17.5 0.9 65.8 66.2 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 15.7 15.4 17.1 0.7 59.9 61.5 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 0.7 61.2 62.9 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.9 20.2 1.3 72.0 69.2 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.9 14.9 0.7 59.5 61.4 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 16.1 16.4 17.1 0.6 60.7 61.1 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.3 15.7 0.6 60.6 60.9 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.0 16.6 0.7 60.9 61.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.0 15.6 0.7 59.6 61.3 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.2 14.9 0.5 60.0 59.1 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.5 17.1 17.3 0.8 61.7 63.7 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 18.2 18.0 18.9 1.1 70.4 69.3 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.6 16.0 0.7 61.2 61.4 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.2 20.0 1.6 75.5 72.1 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.7 14.8 0.7 62.9 62.0 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.5 20.0 1.2 70.8 68.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.8 12.6 0.6 60.3 61.3 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.6 18.7 0.7 62.9 62.7 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.4 19.9 1.5 76.7 71.9 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.8 19.6 1.0 68.0 66.3 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 17.0 17.1 17.0 0.7 64.3 63.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 17.0 17.0 18.4 1.0 67.1 65.7 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.2 14.9 0.7 62.3 63.0 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.6 19.2 1.1 69.4 67.2 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.2 17.8 0.9 66.2 66.1 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.0 14.2 0.6 61.5 61.4 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.9 20.2 1.2 70.7 68.2 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------