***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 45 55 100 16.7 16.6 19.6 0.9 67.3 65.6 15.4 16.1 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 16.7 16.9 19.5 0.9 69.3 67.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 17.9 18.9 19.7 0.7 65.5 64.0 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.6 17.3 0.9 70.4 67.1 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.8 15.0 17.3 0.6 63.7 62.0 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 14.1 14.1 14.9 0.7 65.9 64.5 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.0 19.7 1.0 69.8 67.6 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.4 14.5 0.3 55.3 55.5 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.3 17.4 0.6 63.0 61.5 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.9 15.5 0.4 57.9 57.3 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.9 16.7 0.5 59.0 59.3 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.1 15.6 0.4 56.2 57.2 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 15.2 15.3 15.4 0.5 61.3 60.4 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 16.7 16.9 17.2 0.6 64.7 62.5 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.3 19.0 1.0 73.8 69.7 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.5 16.3 0.6 62.9 61.8 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.4 17.6 19.6 1.2 72.6 70.6 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.4 14.8 0.4 59.0 58.2 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 47 53 100 16.7 16.7 19.5 0.8 67.7 65.4 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 10.4 10.5 12.6 0.3 55.6 55.5 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.1 18.6 0.5 62.3 60.7 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.5 19.5 1.1 70.6 69.7 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 15.9 16.1 19.3 0.8 67.0 64.9 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.4 17.1 0.6 64.1 61.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 15.7 16.3 18.4 0.7 65.9 63.1 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.1 15.0 0.7 64.0 63.3 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 47 53 100 16.4 16.2 19.0 0.9 67.8 65.6 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.7 17.6 0.8 69.5 65.8 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.7 14.0 0.3 57.2 56.4 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 16.9 16.8 19.7 0.8 68.0 65.8 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------