***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 97 3 100 15.5 15.5 18.2 0.0 50.8 50.8 14.9 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 15.8 15.7 18.1 0.0 49.7 50.8 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 17.9 17.8 18.3 0.0 50.1 51.0 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 97 3 100 13.1 12.9 15.8 -0.2 47.0 48.4 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 95 5 100 14.2 14.1 16.1 -0.3 45.5 46.3 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 97 3 100 12.8 12.6 13.5 -0.1 48.2 49.1 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 16.3 16.1 18.2 -0.1 47.8 49.2 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.4 12.7 -0.9 33.3 34.6 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 15.0 14.9 16.4 -0.1 49.9 50.3 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.0 14.0 -0.6 38.3 39.8 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 15.1 14.1 15.5 -0.4 40.9 42.4 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.8 11.3 13.7 -1.0 31.4 32.3 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 14.0 13.6 14.5 -0.2 45.2 45.4 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 16.0 16.2 16.2 0.1 55.4 54.7 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 16.4 17.0 18.0 0.3 57.7 57.1 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 15.3 15.0 15.1 -0.3 43.7 44.5 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 17.0 17.2 18.3 0.3 57.2 57.8 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 14.0 13.6 13.6 -0.4 43.9 44.7 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 15.7 15.5 18.0 -0.1 49.0 49.6 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.3 8.6 11.4 -0.6 38.7 39.9 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 15.3 15.2 17.6 0.0 50.8 52.0 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.2 15.5 18.3 0.2 57.1 57.4 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 15.4 15.2 17.8 -0.2 48.9 50.0 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 15.5 15.8 16.3 0.1 55.3 54.5 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 15.3 14.8 16.9 -0.4 43.7 44.6 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 14.2 13.6 13.5 -0.2 44.0 46.1 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 98 2 100 15.4 15.2 17.6 -0.1 48.6 49.1 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 94 6 100 14.3 14.2 16.5 0.1 52.5 53.0 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 13.0 12.0 12.6 -0.6 41.4 41.6 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 16.2 15.9 18.2 -0.2 46.3 47.8 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------