***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.3 50.5 28.7 28.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 21.6 38.8 19.0 57.8 34.1 30.4 38.2 46.7 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 26.1 28.0 16.7 50.4 27.9 28.3 30.3 38.8 48.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 33.7 46.4 16.2 51.9 32.7 30.2 46.5 52.4 58.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.0 25.7 17.2 52.7 34.4 31.6 25.5 35.3 54.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 28.9 35.5 22.2 56.0 34.0 30.7 35.4 51.2 65.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 23.7 28.6 19.8 59.2 34.1 31.3 27.2 39.8 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 38.1 49.4 19.4 54.2 36.6 32.2 45.6 64.3 91.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 26.0 28.0 17.4 50.3 31.9 29.9 28.4 44.8 53.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 29.3 43.1 20.5 52.5 33.6 30.6 42.8 50.6 61.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 24.5 30.3 15.6 53.9 38.6 32.3 26.5 41.9 51.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 28.1 34.5 14.0 52.1 40.2 32.4 30.1 45.8 56.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 15.8 26.3 16.7 53.3 34.9 30.8 24.5 33.5 42.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 29.4 39.6 24.7 59.1 29.6 30.2 42.2 61.6 79.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 15.9 16.1 12.8 47.9 26.8 25.9 21.3 30.6 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 19.0 26.6 15.6 52.1 35.2 29.9 23.9 33.4 40.7 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 27.9 31.0 19.6 59.6 34.1 31.2 29.0 49.1 67.7 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 29.5 37.3 24.6 53.6 31.6 29.4 38.0 49.3 64.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 21.7 34.2 18.5 56.8 32.6 29.8 34.3 48.6 66.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 32.3 39.3 29.2 64.5 38.0 36.2 34.8 49.3 59.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 30.0 29.7 15.3 48.3 31.4 29.1 30.4 38.1 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 30.5 36.1 19.4 59.0 31.1 30.5 37.5 52.5 59.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 28.7 31.2 19.4 58.0 31.9 30.6 31.5 44.1 51.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 29.0 28.3 21.6 51.5 27.4 27.5 40.8 52.3 77.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 31.9 31.3 18.7 52.1 28.2 28.0 36.3 44.7 54.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 18.7 29.9 13.2 52.8 39.8 32.1 24.8 41.0 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 25.5 30.7 19.5 53.3 27.1 28.8 32.5 39.6 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 20.8 22.1 14.9 51.7 33.4 30.1 22.0 28.0 45.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 48.6 60.3 27.1 58.7 33.0 31.6 60.3 74.9 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 22.2 25.1 18.3 55.4 32.1 29.5 25.4 39.8 49.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------