***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 3.0 66.4 68.2 45.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 12.6 3.7 62.0 62.6 40.2 2.1 4.7 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.6 15.5 3.2 64.5 63.6 43.2 0.9 5.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.7 25.0 3.4 103.3 72.0 52.1 3.1 10.0 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 15.2 3.3 91.7 67.0 47.6 0.4 8.6 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.7 4.7 85.0 64.6 47.7 2.7 8.4 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.7 7.1 3.9 64.8 63.0 39.8 1.9 4.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.8 22.2 4.4 91.5 66.2 46.5 12.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.1 3.4 80.9 67.3 45.0 4.8 9.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.8 16.1 4.3 82.6 64.1 44.5 6.8 14.0 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.4 19.0 3.0 89.0 68.4 47.9 4.7 12.4 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.7 17.1 3.0 93.7 70.7 49.0 2.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.4 13.8 3.3 91.0 71.2 48.1 1.6 5.3 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.9 13.3 4.9 74.5 61.4 42.9 4.9 9.5 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 17.3 3.2 106.8 71.8 51.6 3.3 7.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.2 2.8 84.5 70.7 48.8 2.4 8.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.9 3.6 63.1 62.6 41.5 2.4 7.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 14.8 5.4 80.4 64.1 42.3 5.6 10.9 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.9 3.5 61.7 62.3 41.3 1.9 4.7 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 16.1 6.6 91.3 64.0 43.3 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 13.7 2.9 75.1 66.5 45.6 5.7 8.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.8 3.4 58.0 60.1 41.3 3.6 8.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 12.8 3.6 66.1 63.4 43.5 1.9 5.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.9 20.3 4.5 73.4 64.8 41.9 5.1 12.9 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.1 19.3 3.8 82.2 69.6 46.1 2.5 8.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.7 14.1 2.6 86.5 70.7 49.6 2.2 7.4 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.6 3.8 71.7 68.9 45.3 3.2 6.7 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 13.3 3.1 103.2 71.6 52.6 0.8 4.4 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.8 23.7 6.0 86.9 65.0 41.9 7.3 17.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.6 3.5 60.8 64.0 40.4 2.2 5.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------