***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 44.7 58.3 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.3 16.7 4.1 56.9 59.9 38.7 3.3 14.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.1 3.3 48.1 56.3 38.7 1.7 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 9.8 4.1 66.7 67.9 44.8 1.5 6.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.6 13.9 4.5 72.9 68.9 44.4 1.6 6.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.3 6.3 80.6 64.5 45.0 1.9 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.6 14.8 4.2 55.7 62.0 38.6 0.7 10.9 21.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 3.0 20.2 6.0 93.5 70.8 45.7 1.7 7.3 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.6 13.7 4.4 67.1 65.0 40.3 1.4 7.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.2 19.5 5.8 79.5 66.8 42.6 3.4 10.6 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.1 18.6 4.6 88.9 72.8 45.2 0.3 3.0 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.7 14.7 4.5 100.0 74.9 45.8 0.4 4.0 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.1 12.1 5.3 96.3 69.2 45.4 1.1 4.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.1 4.3 5.5 62.8 54.1 41.7 0.5 3.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.1 5.1 2.6 56.4 64.1 42.6 0.0 2.4 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 10.3 4.8 89.9 71.2 44.3 2.3 6.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 14.5 4.2 57.8 62.5 38.2 2.3 6.7 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.8 6.8 73.4 61.8 41.5 2.2 7.6 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 17.4 4.0 57.2 58.5 40.2 1.5 8.0 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 14.4 9.0 95.3 67.7 46.1 4.6 9.7 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.5 15.4 3.4 56.7 61.9 40.6 0.3 3.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.1 7.0 4.1 57.7 60.5 40.0 1.7 5.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.3 7.9 4.1 57.9 57.7 41.8 0.4 3.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.1 5.0 57.9 55.5 39.4 2.3 9.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.6 11.3 4.3 55.5 60.0 41.2 0.3 4.1 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.4 4.3 107.2 71.4 50.2 1.7 7.7 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.2 10.4 4.0 48.5 57.2 40.4 0.8 2.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.1 13.0 3.8 69.4 69.3 45.7 0.4 4.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 22.2 7.3 79.3 61.6 42.9 3.8 15.3 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.5 3.8 52.1 58.3 37.4 1.6 4.2 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------