***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.8 87.8 65.7 48.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 9.8 7.3 90.4 65.4 47.7 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.2 13.1 7.1 80.2 61.0 46.1 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.0 17.7 6.3 68.9 63.7 49.5 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.6 10.9 6.8 69.7 63.9 48.6 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.4 8.2 66.7 56.2 43.1 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.2 13.2 7.4 89.7 66.7 47.5 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.7 19.5 6.6 58.5 60.9 45.9 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 9.5 7.0 67.3 61.8 46.1 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 11.2 7.7 64.8 60.1 44.9 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.9 17.5 5.8 66.0 64.9 46.8 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.5 12.7 4.8 55.0 63.3 46.2 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.4 8.4 6.0 60.1 61.8 41.9 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.4 12.1 10.0 87.1 60.9 47.9 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.1 4.7 59.0 58.7 44.0 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.6 8.0 6.0 64.3 62.7 42.0 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.0 16.0 7.3 86.9 65.0 47.6 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 9.0 9.3 67.5 58.9 42.8 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.5 7.4 91.8 64.8 47.9 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.6 10.3 72.0 61.3 45.7 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.8 6.5 74.3 64.5 46.9 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.3 20.3 7.3 88.7 64.9 47.5 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.9 8.0 94.8 64.1 48.2 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.8 8.8 73.9 58.2 44.3 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.3 16.2 7.3 77.5 64.0 46.8 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.3 4.6 57.6 64.4 45.5 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.9 7.7 86.6 66.3 47.5 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.5 5.7 66.8 62.3 46.0 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 21.7 10.1 71.4 59.5 43.8 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.4 11.0 7.2 87.8 65.1 46.6 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------