***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.4 25.9 33.1 24.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 1.3 2.1 3.9 33.4 32.3 24.8 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 1.1 0.0 3.1 25.1 27.3 23.0 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 0.9 0.0 2.4 19.1 25.3 21.3 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 0.5 0.6 2.6 20.0 28.6 22.5 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 1.0 1.6 3.0 21.6 35.0 23.3 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 0.9 0.8 4.3 37.0 33.8 29.2 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 1.4 1.6 2.4 18.3 27.7 20.6 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 0.1 0.0 2.6 19.6 23.9 18.8 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 0.6 0.1 2.7 18.8 24.3 19.5 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 0.3 0.1 2.2 19.3 32.1 23.0 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.8 17.1 29.5 20.9 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 0.1 0.0 2.1 17.1 28.4 19.9 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.0 4.4 29.0 23.8 22.1 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.3 20.5 29.8 22.2 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 0.4 0.3 2.0 16.8 28.0 20.4 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.3 2.4 4.5 38.9 37.6 29.9 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 0.6 0.2 3.1 19.2 19.4 18.1 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 0.8 1.1 3.6 30.6 28.1 22.1 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 0.9 0.8 3.3 23.5 21.5 21.1 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 0.4 0.0 2.5 19.2 24.7 20.5 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.2 2.1 4.5 39.3 37.8 28.7 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 0.7 0.0 3.8 30.1 26.2 21.9 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 0.4 0.0 3.3 21.9 20.7 18.8 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.3 0.0 3.4 23.8 24.7 21.9 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.7 17.2 33.0 21.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 1.5 0.7 4.0 28.3 29.2 24.7 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 0.6 0.2 2.3 19.7 31.8 23.7 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 1.7 0.6 3.5 22.7 20.7 19.5 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 0.8 0.0 3.8 32.3 30.1 24.2 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------