***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 0.0 32.8 3.3 91.6 81.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 30.5 31.8 32.8 3.3 89.0 80.0 28.1 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 30.5 32.2 32.9 3.4 92.1 81.1 27.3 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 23.8 24.6 31.1 2.6 87.5 77.3 20.3 21.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 31.4 32.8 31.0 2.8 90.5 78.7 28.3 29.4 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 29.3 31.4 28.6 2.7 88.1 79.4 26.7 28.2 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 30.3 31.1 32.5 3.2 88.2 79.2 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 18.6 20.3 29.1 2.8 87.2 78.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 30.6 32.3 31.3 3.1 91.6 79.9 27.7 28.7 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 30.4 32.1 29.8 3.0 89.7 79.2 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 30.7 32.7 30.6 3.0 90.7 80.3 28.3 28.7 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 29.9 31.7 30.3 2.8 88.3 79.0 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 30.8 32.5 29.8 2.7 87.7 78.8 28.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 30.1 32.1 30.5 3.0 89.7 78.4 27.5 28.3 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 31.3 31.8 31.8 2.6 85.1 78.3 28.4 30.0 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 31.8 33.7 30.4 2.8 89.4 79.5 29.0 29.9 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.6 32.1 3.0 87.9 77.9 27.3 28.4 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 29.1 30.8 28.8 2.9 89.0 78.2 26.7 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 30.1 31.6 32.9 3.4 90.7 80.7 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 25.0 25.6 26.5 2.5 83.9 75.7 23.0 23.2 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 30.5 32.0 32.2 3.1 92.1 79.6 27.6 29.1 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 30.6 31.8 32.1 3.0 89.1 78.1 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 30.3 32.1 32.6 3.4 93.0 80.9 27.4 28.5 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.0 31.4 30.6 3.1 90.7 79.7 27.2 28.1 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 30.8 32.2 31.3 3.0 90.9 79.0 28.2 29.2 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 30.7 31.4 29.7 2.3 79.8 75.4 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 30.3 31.4 31.9 3.1 90.6 79.8 27.8 28.7 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.3 31.8 31.3 2.5 85.4 77.3 28.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 24.5 25.7 27.6 2.7 86.7 77.0 21.9 22.8 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 30.5 31.1 33.0 3.4 90.0 80.6 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------