***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 32.0 2.2 78.9 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.7 32.1 2.2 76.0 71.9 28.1 29.3 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 31.3 32.1 32.2 2.4 79.7 73.2 28.4 29.7 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 24.7 24.9 30.5 1.8 74.2 70.2 21.9 23.8 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.9 32.5 30.4 2.1 75.5 71.4 29.1 30.5 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 30.5 30.8 28.1 2.0 75.4 71.7 28.2 29.5 30.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 31.1 31.2 31.8 2.0 75.6 70.5 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.7 20.0 28.7 2.2 77.5 71.7 17.8 18.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 31.2 31.8 30.7 2.3 77.1 72.6 29.1 30.0 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.7 31.1 29.4 2.3 78.5 72.4 28.7 29.6 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 31.5 32.1 30.1 2.3 78.8 73.5 28.6 30.3 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 30.5 30.9 29.8 2.2 77.4 72.6 28.3 29.6 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 31.7 32.2 29.3 2.1 76.1 71.6 29.4 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.5 29.9 2.1 77.1 70.8 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 32.2 32.6 31.2 2.0 77.2 73.0 29.9 31.1 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 32.5 33.1 29.8 2.1 75.8 72.2 29.7 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.2 31.4 2.0 75.5 71.0 27.2 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.0 28.4 2.2 78.7 71.3 27.2 28.7 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 31.0 31.8 32.2 2.3 77.9 73.0 27.6 28.8 30.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.4 26.2 1.9 76.6 69.5 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 31.4 32.1 31.6 2.2 77.4 72.0 29.0 30.2 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.9 31.9 31.4 2.0 77.8 71.6 27.6 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 31.1 32.0 32.0 2.4 80.6 73.6 27.7 28.8 31.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.3 30.1 2.3 79.2 72.2 27.9 28.7 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 31.7 32.5 30.5 2.0 77.0 70.6 29.2 30.1 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 31.2 31.5 29.3 1.7 75.3 68.9 28.8 30.3 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 31.1 31.8 31.1 2.0 77.5 70.1 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 32.0 32.3 30.7 1.8 74.4 70.6 30.1 31.0 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.6 26.1 27.3 2.1 76.9 70.1 23.0 24.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 31.1 31.9 32.3 2.3 77.2 72.1 28.3 29.4 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------