***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 31.2 2.1 75.1 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.2 31.2 2.1 71.5 71.2 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.5 31.1 31.2 2.2 74.6 72.2 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.4 25.0 29.6 1.7 75.4 69.2 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 31.4 32.1 29.5 1.9 76.6 70.2 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.2 31.1 27.6 2.2 80.6 73.8 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.8 31.0 2.0 70.6 70.6 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.4 20.4 27.8 2.0 78.4 71.5 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.4 29.8 2.0 77.7 71.3 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 30.7 31.3 28.4 2.0 78.5 71.2 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 30.9 31.6 29.2 2.1 79.4 72.5 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 30.1 31.0 29.1 2.1 79.4 72.6 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 31.3 31.9 28.7 2.2 79.5 73.3 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.6 28.8 1.7 74.3 68.0 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 32.0 32.6 30.4 1.9 78.8 72.4 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 32.3 33.1 29.1 2.1 79.4 72.6 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.6 30.0 30.5 1.7 67.6 68.2 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 30.2 31.1 27.4 1.9 77.9 70.1 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.6 31.3 2.2 72.9 71.9 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 25.9 27.1 25.3 1.7 77.3 68.8 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.6 30.9 30.6 2.0 75.6 70.8 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.9 30.3 1.6 69.6 67.1 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 30.2 31.0 30.9 2.1 74.7 72.0 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 30.2 30.5 29.1 1.9 76.6 70.5 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 30.8 31.0 29.6 1.9 74.7 70.3 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 30.9 31.5 28.7 1.9 75.0 70.6 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.1 30.7 30.2 1.9 73.9 70.2 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 32.0 32.4 29.9 1.7 76.5 70.1 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 25.4 26.4 26.3 1.8 76.6 68.7 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.9 31.4 2.2 73.5 72.2 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------