***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 9999.0 0.0 29.8 1.4 71.0 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 29.3 30.2 29.5 1.1 63.1 62.5 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 30.1 30.7 29.9 1.6 72.4 69.1 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 23.0 23.6 27.7 1.3 73.0 66.5 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 30.7 30.7 28.2 1.5 71.0 69.1 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 29.2 29.6 26.0 1.9 76.2 74.2 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 29.0 30.1 29.2 0.8 59.5 60.1 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.6 26.1 1.6 73.5 70.8 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.4 29.0 1.7 72.1 71.8 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.9 30.4 27.1 1.7 74.5 71.7 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.7 27.8 1.6 74.0 70.7 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 29.3 29.5 27.2 1.6 74.9 71.5 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 30.8 30.8 27.5 1.9 75.5 73.4 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 29.8 29.7 27.7 1.0 64.4 64.3 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 30.4 31.2 29.5 1.2 71.5 66.1 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.6 31.6 27.8 1.7 75.6 71.8 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 28.6 29.0 28.5 0.4 56.5 55.5 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.8 29.3 25.9 1.4 73.6 69.1 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 28.7 30.0 29.7 1.4 68.0 66.1 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 24.9 25.2 24.1 1.6 74.1 70.8 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 29.9 30.1 29.5 1.4 68.0 67.1 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 29.1 29.4 28.4 0.5 57.2 56.2 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 30.0 30.6 29.7 1.7 73.7 70.6 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 29.8 29.7 27.7 1.2 70.3 67.0 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 29.6 30.0 28.2 1.0 61.5 61.3 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.4 27.1 1.7 75.6 72.4 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 29.1 29.3 28.6 0.9 61.1 60.7 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 30.9 31.2 28.4 1.2 71.9 66.8 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 24.3 24.7 25.0 1.3 72.0 67.2 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 29.0 30.0 29.8 1.3 66.8 64.8 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------