***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 0.0 31.4 2.2 91.8 83.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 29.9 31.3 31.4 2.2 88.1 81.5 28.4 28.8 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 29.9 31.7 31.6 2.4 92.1 84.6 28.5 29.2 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 23.7 24.7 29.7 1.8 89.5 79.9 21.6 22.6 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 30.8 32.3 29.8 2.1 91.0 82.0 28.7 29.6 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 29.5 31.0 27.6 2.2 90.8 83.8 27.2 28.2 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 29.6 30.3 31.1 2.0 86.2 79.8 28.2 28.7 29.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 18.5 19.9 27.9 2.1 92.6 82.3 16.9 17.3 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 30.2 32.2 30.2 2.3 94.1 84.1 28.5 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 29.9 31.9 28.7 2.2 93.7 83.3 28.1 28.7 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 30.3 32.4 29.4 2.2 93.3 84.0 28.5 29.0 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 29.5 31.3 29.1 2.2 93.0 83.5 27.6 28.3 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 30.5 32.4 28.8 2.2 93.7 83.6 28.7 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.9 31.1 29.2 1.9 89.2 80.1 27.8 28.8 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 31.4 32.2 30.7 1.9 90.1 81.6 29.7 30.2 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 31.3 33.1 29.3 2.2 91.9 83.2 29.5 30.2 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.0 30.6 1.8 82.2 77.1 27.8 28.1 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.2 27.6 2.1 91.7 81.3 27.2 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 29.5 31.0 31.5 2.3 90.9 83.3 28.2 28.5 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 25.0 25.8 25.5 1.9 90.1 79.6 23.2 23.6 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 30.2 31.5 31.0 2.2 90.9 82.8 28.4 29.3 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.6 30.8 30.6 1.8 83.8 77.6 28.0 28.7 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 29.8 31.1 31.3 2.4 93.7 84.8 28.2 28.7 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.8 29.4 2.1 91.1 82.2 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.5 29.9 2.0 87.9 80.8 28.7 29.5 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.3 28.7 1.9 88.3 80.6 28.5 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 29.7 30.7 30.4 2.0 88.0 80.7 28.2 29.0 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.3 32.1 30.1 1.8 89.2 79.9 29.3 30.0 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 24.6 25.2 26.5 2.0 90.6 79.7 22.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 29.8 31.1 31.6 2.3 89.4 82.9 28.3 28.9 29.5 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------