***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 19.8 1.3 86.8 78.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.0 19.5 1.0 77.7 72.5 15.1 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.2 19.7 1.4 88.7 80.6 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.7 17.6 0.8 82.7 72.2 13.1 13.5 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.5 17.4 1.0 87.3 75.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.8 14.3 15.7 0.9 84.8 74.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.9 19.6 1.0 78.6 71.2 15.4 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 9.4 9.8 15.5 0.9 85.8 74.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 16.2 17.2 17.9 1.2 89.9 80.0 15.2 15.8 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.6 16.1 1.0 86.0 75.4 15.1 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.2 17.1 1.0 89.7 77.9 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 13.9 14.5 16.5 1.1 90.1 78.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.0 15.5 15.9 0.9 86.6 76.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.0 17.4 0.8 80.7 71.3 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 17.3 17.8 18.9 1.1 87.0 78.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.1 16.7 1.0 88.0 77.5 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 17.1 17.3 18.7 0.6 72.0 64.8 16.0 16.7 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.0 15.2 0.8 82.9 72.3 13.2 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 16.4 16.9 19.6 1.2 82.2 76.1 15.5 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.5 13.4 0.7 76.0 67.7 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.8 19.0 1.2 86.9 77.5 15.1 15.6 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.2 18.7 0.7 73.7 67.2 14.8 15.6 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.4 19.4 1.3 89.2 79.8 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 16.6 16.9 17.4 1.0 87.1 75.9 15.4 16.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.4 18.2 1.0 83.6 74.0 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.5 15.9 0.9 84.5 75.6 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.4 17.1 18.9 1.1 83.9 74.5 15.3 15.8 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 14.9 15.3 18.1 0.9 83.0 74.1 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.8 14.1 14.5 0.7 79.0 69.9 12.8 13.1 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.1 19.9 1.2 81.8 76.1 15.6 16.4 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------