***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 0.0 20.6 2.3 88.1 79.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 16.7 18.1 20.7 2.2 89.7 79.0 14.6 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 18.7 20.5 20.7 2.3 90.8 80.7 17.4 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 14.4 15.0 18.4 1.6 84.4 74.7 12.7 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.4 15.9 18.2 1.7 83.8 75.9 14.0 14.5 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 14.2 14.8 16.5 1.7 85.9 75.4 13.1 13.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 16.8 17.9 20.7 2.1 88.9 77.9 15.1 16.0 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 9.9 10.7 16.5 1.8 84.3 76.6 8.6 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 16.5 17.0 18.6 2.0 86.1 78.2 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.5 16.7 16.9 1.8 85.2 76.8 15.4 15.8 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 16.2 16.6 17.9 1.8 85.0 77.2 14.9 15.5 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.3 14.8 17.4 1.8 85.3 77.7 12.9 13.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.6 16.6 1.6 85.8 75.5 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 17.1 17.8 18.4 1.8 87.5 76.5 15.7 16.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 17.6 18.8 19.7 2.0 88.1 77.8 16.2 16.8 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 17.0 17.6 17.4 1.7 85.2 76.2 15.4 16.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.1 17.9 19.9 1.9 88.4 76.5 15.3 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.7 16.1 1.8 86.4 76.1 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.7 18.0 20.7 2.3 91.4 80.2 15.3 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.3 14.5 1.5 81.4 73.1 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 16.5 17.0 19.7 2.1 87.4 78.1 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.1 16.9 19.9 2.0 89.4 77.5 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.4 20.4 2.3 91.9 80.6 14.3 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 16.8 17.2 18.3 2.0 89.7 78.3 15.8 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.9 18.0 18.9 2.0 87.6 77.7 15.0 15.8 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.6 16.7 1.5 84.1 74.5 14.3 15.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 17.7 18.8 19.7 2.1 88.1 78.7 14.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.2 18.9 1.7 84.3 75.1 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 13.9 14.4 15.5 1.6 83.9 74.7 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 17.1 18.2 21.0 2.3 89.9 80.1 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------