***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 1.1 72.2 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.6 19.9 1.1 71.9 66.0 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 19.3 19.6 20.0 1.3 74.8 69.5 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 15.0 14.9 17.9 0.9 66.7 65.4 12.6 14.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.1 17.8 1.1 70.6 68.1 13.9 14.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.2 16.1 1.1 68.8 69.2 12.8 13.8 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.9 19.9 0.9 70.9 64.2 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.5 16.1 1.2 72.1 69.0 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 16.8 17.4 18.2 1.3 74.2 70.1 15.1 15.8 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 16.8 17.4 16.6 1.2 71.8 69.2 15.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.8 17.6 1.3 74.4 71.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.8 17.1 1.3 73.9 71.3 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.6 16.3 1.2 70.1 70.5 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 17.2 17.8 17.9 1.0 70.7 66.4 15.4 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 18.1 18.0 19.1 1.2 70.6 68.7 16.3 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.4 17.1 1.2 71.3 70.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.8 17.4 19.1 0.7 65.6 61.3 15.8 17.0 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.9 15.8 1.1 70.9 68.3 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.1 17.5 20.0 1.2 74.3 68.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.7 11.3 14.1 0.9 67.3 65.8 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 16.9 17.1 19.2 1.2 72.0 68.0 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 16.6 16.5 19.1 0.8 66.2 62.8 14.6 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 16.7 17.0 19.8 1.3 76.9 70.2 14.7 16.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 17.1 17.6 17.9 1.2 73.3 69.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 16.4 17.0 18.3 1.0 67.6 64.9 14.9 16.2 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 15.4 15.7 16.4 1.0 68.2 67.5 13.9 14.5 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 17.0 17.6 19.0 1.0 69.3 63.9 14.9 15.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.2 18.4 1.0 67.1 67.0 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 14.4 14.7 15.2 1.1 70.2 68.1 12.7 13.8 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 17.5 18.0 20.2 1.2 73.9 67.2 15.0 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------