***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 9999.0 0.0 18.8 0.7 59.7 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 15.8 15.4 17.8 -0.2 44.4 46.4 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 18.0 18.0 18.5 0.6 58.0 58.9 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 13.2 13.0 16.2 0.0 48.6 50.6 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 14.3 14.2 16.3 0.0 52.9 51.7 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.1 12.9 14.3 0.0 50.9 51.3 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 16.3 15.8 18.2 0.0 45.9 48.1 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 8.3 8.1 13.9 -0.1 49.6 50.0 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 15.1 15.5 17.0 0.4 58.6 58.8 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 15.1 14.9 14.9 0.0 50.9 51.5 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 15.1 14.9 15.7 -0.1 49.5 49.4 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 13.1 13.1 14.9 0.0 52.8 52.6 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.1 13.7 14.7 -0.1 48.9 48.3 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 16.1 15.8 16.2 -0.2 47.5 47.2 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 96 4 100 16.4 17.0 18.1 0.3 58.2 57.1 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 15.3 15.1 15.5 0.0 50.3 49.9 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 17.1 16.5 17.1 -0.5 41.4 42.8 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 14.0 13.7 13.6 -0.3 48.6 47.5 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 15.7 15.6 18.0 0.0 49.5 50.5 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.3 8.7 11.4 -0.4 45.3 43.6 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 15.3 15.3 18.0 0.3 54.0 55.8 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.2 14.9 17.4 -0.4 44.4 44.9 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 15.4 15.6 18.1 0.4 56.5 56.5 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 15.6 15.5 16.0 -0.1 51.1 50.9 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 15.3 15.2 17.2 0.1 49.2 50.2 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 14.1 14.2 14.4 0.3 52.6 53.5 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 15.5 15.5 17.8 0.3 51.5 52.6 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 14.3 14.2 17.0 0.1 52.7 52.6 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.0 12.1 12.8 -0.4 44.1 43.6 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 96 4 100 16.2 16.1 18.4 0.2 48.9 50.9 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------