***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 45.6 48.8 39.5 102.7 61.6 54.4 29.8 33.7 53.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 49.9 56.1 37.4 113.6 67.3 58.6 34.7 43.2 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 46.9 46.7 41.5 111.4 64.3 56.6 32.7 38.5 48.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 58.9 56.7 39.1 101.7 62.0 54.5 45.1 52.4 58.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 40.4 49.2 38.6 106.5 61.3 56.1 25.8 35.7 53.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 59.0 59.1 38.9 93.4 54.6 50.9 36.6 53.3 65.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.8 48.4 36.5 108.5 65.4 57.1 25.1 38.8 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 69.8 94.3 44.6 107.0 63.0 56.8 43.2 60.2 98.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 49.4 48.9 40.6 105.1 59.2 54.3 29.9 43.7 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 56.9 56.9 47.5 106.8 61.1 55.9 42.9 50.5 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 45.3 47.8 35.4 104.1 61.0 55.9 26.7 40.7 50.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 55.3 59.6 32.9 101.6 61.8 55.2 31.7 48.7 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 39.1 43.8 33.8 103.3 63.3 56.5 24.4 35.8 45.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 68.7 80.9 55.3 117.0 65.7 60.1 41.0 59.3 80.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 38.4 35.0 29.6 91.2 56.3 50.5 18.3 26.8 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 36.7 39.3 33.5 100.9 61.4 55.1 26.1 33.4 40.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 68.6 69.8 39.1 119.3 69.8 61.6 34.7 49.1 67.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 59.9 63.8 56.1 110.5 64.9 57.2 38.1 53.0 64.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 59.5 69.3 39.1 115.7 66.8 59.0 35.9 52.7 68.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 51.2 57.0 56.0 108.1 62.7 56.8 33.4 44.0 58.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 42.9 45.6 41.4 108.0 61.9 55.4 33.6 36.6 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 54.8 60.4 42.7 122.1 69.5 61.3 38.0 52.1 60.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 51.4 49.7 41.4 115.9 65.2 59.4 31.6 45.0 51.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 61.1 78.1 50.9 114.1 66.3 58.5 40.4 52.3 77.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 46.9 51.5 44.8 107.0 64.1 57.6 36.3 43.8 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 43.2 45.9 28.0 105.8 64.0 56.5 25.6 38.8 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 48.9 54.2 44.3 106.3 63.4 57.0 32.3 39.9 56.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 41.0 33.0 34.1 94.1 57.8 51.3 23.4 28.0 43.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 82.1 89.4 59.3 112.7 65.0 58.2 60.0 76.3 90.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 41.3 50.3 38.0 110.1 66.3 57.3 25.4 36.7 50.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------