***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 17.7 8.5 113.7 72.2 54.8 4.0 10.1 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.5 14.5 8.4 120.9 73.6 55.8 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.1 23.8 9.7 131.3 73.3 56.7 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.7 36.7 8.9 118.2 76.9 53.7 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.0 16.8 7.4 111.3 74.8 53.6 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.7 20.5 8.2 95.6 69.2 48.7 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.5 14.4 7.8 107.8 70.6 55.8 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 20.6 8.4 101.2 67.7 50.5 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.4 20.4 8.3 115.9 74.1 55.3 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.3 22.3 9.5 108.7 71.0 53.1 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.2 23.4 6.8 113.5 74.2 55.1 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 17.1 6.3 103.0 70.2 52.1 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 18.4 7.4 113.4 72.2 54.2 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.6 17.8 12.2 123.3 71.1 54.4 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 24.1 7.4 122.6 78.6 54.5 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.8 18.4 7.2 112.6 74.0 53.5 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.2 19.7 7.9 113.0 72.2 53.8 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.7 12.2 110.8 68.6 53.3 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 21.4 9.1 129.1 74.4 56.5 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 18.3 11.5 100.5 65.0 50.2 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 17.3 8.8 121.7 73.8 55.9 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.1 18.3 9.4 120.9 73.9 55.6 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.0 16.9 9.6 132.6 73.8 56.1 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 27.1 11.2 118.7 71.4 55.2 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.8 18.8 8.9 111.2 74.4 57.0 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.5 18.8 5.2 102.7 72.5 50.7 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.7 18.6 8.7 107.2 71.6 56.2 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.6 21.5 8.3 117.8 75.9 52.8 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.6 25.0 12.9 110.2 67.5 53.2 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.2 8.7 120.3 71.7 56.9 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------