***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 21.4 7.5 102.3 69.2 54.1 0.7 5.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.0 21.8 7.0 100.8 71.9 54.2 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.3 17.4 8.4 108.9 70.4 57.1 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 10.9 7.1 81.9 68.3 52.3 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 15.1 7.5 96.3 71.3 52.4 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.9 10.1 8.4 88.4 64.5 49.4 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.5 21.6 6.7 96.6 70.6 51.7 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 16.7 8.2 95.6 66.2 52.7 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.5 8.3 100.5 70.4 52.8 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 17.2 9.3 99.1 67.6 53.1 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 15.8 6.3 94.5 71.1 55.3 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.4 13.1 6.0 89.3 68.5 51.4 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.6 6.9 91.1 68.6 54.5 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.0 26.5 11.8 108.7 68.6 56.1 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.8 6.4 5.4 83.9 69.9 52.1 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.4 12.3 6.7 89.8 71.5 54.6 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 18.5 7.3 106.5 70.4 54.6 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.2 21.0 12.5 109.3 69.1 55.2 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 22.4 7.4 102.1 71.1 55.9 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 15.1 11.8 104.9 66.4 54.5 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.5 22.3 8.7 113.7 72.5 56.3 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.1 8.3 103.1 69.1 55.6 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.2 16.2 7.7 98.2 67.0 56.9 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 20.2 11.2 110.4 70.4 56.1 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.3 14.0 8.4 106.3 71.0 56.8 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.4 5.3 86.8 68.2 51.5 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 22.9 8.5 109.9 70.9 56.2 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.8 6.4 78.7 69.1 50.0 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.0 31.0 13.1 109.2 67.8 55.7 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.4 13.6 7.2 97.3 70.8 55.0 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------