***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.5 8.7 80.3 59.1 49.1 0.9 3.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.7 9.4 97.7 65.5 53.5 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.3 19.7 10.8 106.1 65.9 56.1 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 17.4 8.9 90.0 61.3 50.6 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.9 10.1 8.7 92.5 61.7 51.9 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.6 8.0 9.0 80.1 56.3 48.3 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.7 8.4 88.6 63.7 50.7 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 21.8 11.0 105.6 66.1 55.6 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 9.8 91.7 60.0 48.6 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.0 10.9 97.5 62.4 52.7 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.0 12.2 9.0 97.1 63.6 54.6 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.9 10.3 8.8 102.6 67.2 55.1 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.8 9.9 8.5 107.0 68.7 57.1 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.9 22.7 12.1 98.1 64.0 55.3 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.7 6.5 74.1 60.7 48.2 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.9 6.2 8.3 95.5 64.0 52.6 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 10.3 13.9 8.7 86.2 63.4 53.0 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 9.2 12.0 91.8 58.8 51.3 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.4 18.9 10.4 110.6 67.6 56.3 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.8 14.6 111.6 66.4 58.2 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.7 14.1 9.8 88.7 62.0 50.5 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.6 20.6 10.6 105.2 66.8 56.4 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.5 13.6 10.8 116.3 66.6 57.8 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.2 19.1 11.3 95.4 61.7 52.8 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 14.2 9.8 81.4 62.0 50.0 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 10.7 8.6 107.5 68.2 55.3 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.5 13.3 10.5 87.4 62.0 51.8 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.3 7.7 84.6 62.4 49.4 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 20.7 14.5 102.7 61.7 55.6 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.0 10.0 105.3 67.0 55.1 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------