***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 19.0 23.3 14.8 115.5 69.0 63.5 2.1 4.1 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 12.1 15.6 12.7 134.5 75.8 66.0 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 9.1 13.8 12.6 105.1 68.7 63.0 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.2 18.2 14.2 114.8 72.2 61.8 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 14.0 16.3 15.0 120.9 71.2 65.9 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.7 9.8 13.3 107.2 68.5 62.6 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 12.1 17.0 13.6 136.9 76.2 66.8 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 10.2 15.8 17.1 117.9 68.6 64.2 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 13.7 16.3 14.2 113.4 70.2 64.2 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 48 52 100 12.3 13.6 17.8 117.0 69.2 65.0 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 4.9 10.2 13.4 109.2 69.5 65.4 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 7.5 19.4 11.7 106.9 68.0 62.5 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 1.8 6.3 11.1 103.0 71.1 63.7 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.8 22.1 19.2 136.7 72.7 66.6 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 13.7 10.3 91.6 70.1 56.6 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 3.3 6.1 11.3 106.2 71.2 63.4 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.5 16.5 15.3 171.8 80.6 68.2 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 14.0 16.4 19.4 128.0 73.4 65.9 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.5 19.2 12.1 122.0 71.8 63.8 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 5.2 10.0 18.1 110.8 67.9 61.4 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 5.8 9.9 14.0 114.1 70.6 63.6 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 11.4 16.1 14.3 161.3 77.3 66.2 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.9 12.1 13.4 117.3 67.5 62.8 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 13.7 17.9 17.2 130.8 74.5 66.4 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 18.2 19.9 17.7 127.2 72.5 65.9 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 1.8 9.3 8.9 120.9 76.0 64.8 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.0 10.7 16.6 120.6 70.2 63.9 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.1 13.7 11.7 97.5 69.8 58.3 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 14.3 18.3 18.8 127.1 72.0 64.6 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 7.9 11.3 12.2 116.7 72.0 64.7 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------