***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 28.5 28.3 28.7 -1.3 27.0 31.0 28.4 29.1 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 28.1 28.3 28.8 -1.4 28.3 30.3 28.3 28.7 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 28.2 28.1 29.1 -1.2 30.6 33.1 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.4 27.2 -0.2 46.4 47.2 21.5 22.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 30.0 28.8 27.5 -0.8 36.2 37.3 28.7 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.5 27.9 25.1 -0.5 40.3 42.4 27.3 28.1 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 28.0 28.0 28.6 -1.4 26.0 28.6 28.2 28.7 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 16.9 25.4 -1.1 32.5 34.2 16.9 17.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.5 28.0 -0.7 39.1 39.7 28.3 29.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.5 26.3 -0.7 39.6 40.2 28.0 28.7 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.5 27.6 -0.9 34.0 35.8 28.4 28.9 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.5 26.9 -1.2 29.5 32.4 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.4 28.5 26.7 -1.1 30.0 32.3 28.8 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 27.7 27.5 26.7 -1.5 25.9 28.0 27.7 28.9 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.5 29.9 29.3 -0.3 45.7 45.8 29.6 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.3 29.7 27.3 -0.8 35.9 38.0 29.4 30.1 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.6 28.7 -1.1 32.8 33.2 27.6 28.0 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.4 25.2 -0.9 36.0 36.3 27.3 27.8 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.8 28.9 -1.3 30.4 31.5 27.9 28.5 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.0 22.7 -1.1 30.1 33.0 23.1 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.5 28.5 -1.1 33.5 34.3 28.5 29.2 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 27.9 28.1 28.5 -1.1 32.7 34.5 28.1 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.6 27.8 28.8 -1.4 30.1 30.6 28.0 28.7 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.7 27.6 27.0 -1.2 31.7 32.3 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 28.4 28.7 27.3 -1.1 31.5 33.1 28.7 29.4 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 28.2 28.3 26.5 -1.3 26.8 30.3 28.5 29.0 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 28.2 28.0 27.9 -1.2 28.7 31.4 28.1 29.0 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.4 29.9 28.2 -0.1 48.3 48.9 29.2 30.1 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.6 24.2 -1.0 33.1 34.8 22.6 23.2 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 27.9 28.0 28.8 -1.4 27.6 30.5 28.3 28.7 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------