***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.6 28.5 30.1 -0.5 42.7 44.4 27.9 29.2 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 27.2 28.5 30.0 -0.6 43.3 44.5 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 27.6 28.8 30.5 -0.3 47.0 46.0 27.1 29.0 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.7 29.0 0.6 60.1 55.9 20.1 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.3 28.9 0.1 51.0 50.2 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.7 29.2 26.5 0.4 58.4 54.5 26.5 28.4 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.0 28.5 29.8 -0.7 41.4 42.9 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.2 27.2 0.0 51.5 49.6 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.6 29.1 29.1 0.2 53.1 51.1 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.3 27.9 0.3 55.2 52.0 27.5 28.2 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.5 28.8 0.1 52.3 50.0 27.6 28.5 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.8 28.7 -0.1 50.5 48.8 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.2 27.8 -0.1 52.7 49.4 27.8 28.9 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 27.3 27.8 27.6 -0.8 42.0 41.1 27.3 28.6 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.4 30.3 0.6 59.5 56.6 28.1 30.3 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.4 29.9 28.7 0.3 55.1 52.6 28.4 29.7 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 26.3 28.1 29.9 -0.4 46.5 46.0 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.8 26.8 0.0 52.0 49.4 26.5 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 27.0 28.2 30.2 -0.5 44.3 44.7 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.4 24.2 -0.1 49.3 48.6 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.8 29.2 29.6 -0.2 49.4 47.4 27.5 29.2 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 26.9 28.3 29.7 -0.4 45.3 45.6 27.7 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 27.2 28.2 30.1 -0.6 45.5 43.4 27.5 28.5 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 27.1 28.4 28.1 -0.4 47.8 45.5 27.0 28.4 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.6 28.5 -0.2 46.9 47.2 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.9 28.5 -0.1 52.3 49.8 28.0 28.7 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.4 28.4 29.1 -0.4 43.9 45.2 27.5 28.6 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.7 29.6 0.7 61.3 57.7 28.0 30.2 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.6 25.6 -0.1 49.9 48.4 22.0 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.3 28.4 30.1 -0.6 42.9 44.0 27.7 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------