***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 31.0 29.8 30.0 -0.7 41.2 43.9 28.5 30.7 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.3 30.0 -0.6 42.5 43.8 29.1 29.6 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.6 29.9 30.5 -0.5 42.8 45.7 28.3 30.2 31.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.6 28.9 0.4 52.9 54.1 21.5 23.3 25.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.8 30.1 28.7 -0.2 45.0 47.5 29.4 30.3 32.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 29.5 29.0 26.2 0.1 49.1 49.9 27.6 29.1 30.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 27.7 29.2 29.8 -0.8 40.7 41.9 29.0 29.6 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.9 18.0 26.8 -0.6 42.5 44.2 17.3 18.6 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.0 29.0 -0.1 46.9 49.3 28.6 30.2 31.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 30.1 29.5 27.6 -0.1 47.4 48.8 28.5 29.6 31.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.5 28.6 -0.3 42.8 46.0 28.7 29.6 31.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.7 28.3 -0.7 40.3 42.7 28.2 29.1 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.7 29.4 27.4 -0.5 41.8 43.6 29.1 30.2 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.5 27.6 -1.0 36.4 40.4 28.2 29.5 31.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.4 31.4 30.3 0.5 55.7 55.4 29.6 30.9 32.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 31.1 30.0 28.4 -0.1 46.1 48.3 29.6 30.4 32.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.7 29.9 -0.5 44.9 45.5 28.1 29.1 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 27.0 28.2 26.6 -0.3 44.3 46.7 27.0 29.2 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.8 30.2 -0.7 42.4 44.1 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.6 24.1 23.9 -0.6 41.4 43.2 23.7 24.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.7 29.5 29.6 -0.4 42.5 46.3 28.5 30.2 32.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.8 29.2 29.8 -0.5 44.5 45.7 28.5 29.3 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.7 28.6 30.0 -0.9 39.2 42.3 27.7 29.5 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 27.7 29.0 28.1 -0.6 41.5 44.4 27.5 29.9 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 31.1 29.5 28.4 -0.4 43.4 45.8 28.7 30.6 32.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.9 29.2 28.1 -0.6 39.1 42.9 28.1 29.7 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.9 29.1 29.1 -0.6 42.2 44.4 28.1 29.8 31.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 31.0 31.1 29.5 0.6 55.5 55.9 29.8 30.5 32.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.7 23.9 25.4 -0.6 42.2 44.5 22.9 24.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.9 29.4 30.1 -0.7 42.7 43.5 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------