***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.4 27.6 29.1 -0.7 43.7 43.5 26.9 28.9 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.1 28.2 29.3 -0.6 45.6 44.7 27.1 28.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.9 29.5 -0.6 47.4 44.8 27.2 28.2 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.9 27.5 0.4 57.1 54.9 21.0 22.2 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.3 27.9 -0.2 49.5 48.0 27.8 29.3 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.0 25.6 0.0 49.9 51.4 27.0 28.0 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.1 27.8 29.0 -0.7 44.5 43.6 26.9 28.4 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.0 25.7 -0.5 45.0 45.1 16.7 17.2 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 29.4 29.2 28.5 -0.1 51.7 49.8 27.2 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.9 26.7 0.0 51.2 50.4 26.7 28.8 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.0 28.1 -0.4 47.6 46.8 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.0 27.8 27.2 -0.6 42.5 43.5 26.5 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.8 28.6 27.3 -0.7 40.3 42.4 27.9 29.5 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.1 27.3 -0.7 43.1 43.8 26.8 27.3 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.4 30.2 29.8 0.2 55.3 53.2 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.9 29.5 27.8 -0.3 46.1 46.9 28.3 30.3 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.1 29.2 -0.3 49.7 48.3 26.5 28.1 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.4 25.6 -0.2 48.7 48.1 26.2 27.7 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.0 29.4 -0.6 47.1 45.4 26.6 28.1 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 22.3 22.7 23.3 -0.4 44.0 45.2 22.3 23.4 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.3 28.0 29.0 -0.5 45.4 45.6 27.3 28.7 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.1 29.1 -0.3 50.4 48.9 27.2 28.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.6 29.4 -0.6 46.6 45.0 26.8 27.8 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.4 27.6 -0.5 45.8 45.5 26.4 27.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.8 28.2 27.8 -0.5 43.9 44.6 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 29.7 27.9 26.8 -0.9 36.1 40.8 27.5 29.0 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.1 27.5 28.3 -0.6 43.3 44.4 26.7 28.6 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.2 30.2 28.5 0.4 57.5 55.9 29.2 29.8 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.8 22.8 24.7 -0.3 47.8 47.7 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.1 29.3 -0.7 45.5 43.9 26.6 28.2 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------