***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 25.5 24.2 25.7 -3.4 9.2 12.0 27.6 29.0 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 25.6 23.4 25.8 -3.6 8.8 11.3 27.9 28.6 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 25.3 23.8 25.8 -3.5 9.9 13.3 27.6 29.5 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 20.6 19.9 23.6 -2.3 19.7 23.9 21.1 22.3 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 26.8 26.1 24.3 -3.0 14.7 18.0 27.5 29.7 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 26.1 25.9 22.2 -2.4 20.1 22.0 26.8 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 25.4 24.1 25.6 -3.5 7.8 10.6 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 14.9 14.4 21.8 -3.2 13.6 17.2 15.7 17.2 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 26.6 26.0 25.3 -2.9 15.6 18.8 26.9 28.7 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 26.4 25.8 23.0 -2.8 17.0 20.1 26.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 26.6 25.9 24.7 -3.1 15.5 18.9 27.4 29.1 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 25.6 25.0 23.3 -3.3 12.9 17.2 27.1 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 27.0 26.5 24.3 -3.2 12.9 16.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 25.0 24.3 24.2 -3.3 10.0 12.6 27.3 28.9 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 28.7 28.1 26.8 -2.6 15.2 20.9 29.2 30.1 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 27.9 27.6 24.4 -3.0 15.7 18.7 28.4 29.7 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 24.7 23.8 25.6 -3.3 9.3 12.5 27.5 28.4 29.6 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 25.0 24.4 21.7 -3.1 13.0 16.7 26.6 27.7 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 25.1 23.9 25.9 -3.5 9.8 12.6 27.3 28.7 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 91 9 0 100 20.8 20.5 19.6 -3.2 13.8 16.2 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 25.9 24.7 25.7 -3.2 11.8 14.6 27.2 29.1 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 92 8 0 100 25.2 24.2 25.6 -3.1 11.1 13.9 27.7 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 25.5 23.6 25.8 -3.5 9.8 13.4 27.2 29.2 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 25.1 23.9 24.2 -3.3 10.9 14.0 26.8 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 26.3 24.9 24.6 -3.4 10.2 12.8 28.1 29.5 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 26.9 26.3 22.8 -3.5 11.9 15.1 27.8 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 24.9 23.8 25.1 -3.4 7.9 11.7 27.3 29.1 29.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 28.5 28.5 25.1 -2.3 19.9 24.2 29.3 30.0 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 20.4 19.5 21.0 -3.0 14.4 17.6 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 24.9 23.5 25.8 -3.5 9.2 11.9 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------