***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 15.3 15.1 18.1 -0.9 25.5 28.4 15.4 16.1 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.7 14.6 17.9 -0.9 27.7 28.0 15.0 15.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.2 17.0 18.4 -0.9 26.8 29.0 17.5 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.1 -0.4 35.3 39.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 13.5 13.9 16.1 -0.7 26.6 31.8 14.1 14.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.0 14.0 -0.5 34.7 36.7 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 15.3 15.2 18.0 -1.0 25.5 25.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.3 13.7 -0.7 26.9 30.4 8.4 9.1 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.2 -0.6 27.1 32.3 15.3 15.7 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 14.8 14.8 14.6 -0.6 29.1 33.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.0 15.8 -0.8 23.2 28.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.7 -0.8 21.5 27.2 12.9 13.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.7 13.6 14.2 -0.8 20.8 26.3 14.0 14.5 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 15.5 15.2 15.8 -0.8 19.9 25.5 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 16.5 17.9 -0.4 34.6 38.5 16.4 16.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 15.1 15.2 15.2 -0.7 25.9 30.7 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 16.0 15.8 17.8 -0.8 29.6 30.8 16.0 16.6 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 13.0 13.0 13.7 -0.6 26.7 31.3 13.3 14.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 15.0 15.3 18.0 -0.9 27.0 28.0 15.5 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 9.0 9.3 11.5 -0.6 27.5 31.2 9.5 9.9 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.4 -0.8 25.1 29.0 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 14.8 14.6 17.8 -0.8 28.2 30.0 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 14.8 14.7 17.9 -1.0 23.9 25.6 14.9 15.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 15.2 15.2 15.8 -0.8 23.0 27.9 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.8 14.8 16.8 -0.8 26.8 29.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 13.9 14.0 13.8 -0.7 24.3 29.1 14.2 14.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 14.6 14.5 17.4 -0.8 25.8 29.2 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.3 16.6 -0.4 37.5 41.0 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.0 -0.6 26.6 30.9 12.8 13.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.4 15.3 18.2 -1.0 26.3 27.8 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------