***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.3 19.0 -0.3 49.9 46.6 15.5 16.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.1 18.8 -0.3 50.2 45.5 15.5 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 17.1 18.2 19.3 -0.4 48.5 45.4 17.5 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.3 16.9 0.1 54.8 51.9 13.0 13.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.9 16.6 -0.2 48.2 47.5 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.8 14.8 -0.1 50.5 49.7 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.1 18.8 -0.5 47.0 44.0 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 14.5 -0.3 46.3 46.6 8.5 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.0 16.6 -0.2 47.1 47.4 15.3 16.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 15.2 -0.2 46.8 48.0 15.6 15.9 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.4 16.3 -0.3 44.8 46.3 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.5 15.4 -0.3 43.9 45.2 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 13.9 15.0 14.4 -0.3 41.4 45.2 14.5 15.1 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.4 16.1 -0.6 40.5 41.2 16.1 16.7 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.9 18.4 0.1 52.7 52.3 16.2 16.8 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.6 15.6 -0.1 47.7 48.2 15.8 16.6 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.9 18.6 -0.3 50.7 46.5 15.9 16.9 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.2 14.0 -0.3 44.4 46.4 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.2 18.8 -0.4 49.9 44.9 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 10.0 11.8 -0.2 46.3 47.4 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.7 17.9 -0.4 46.3 45.3 15.0 15.8 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.8 18.4 -0.4 48.1 45.5 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.4 18.6 -0.6 45.8 42.6 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.4 16.1 -0.5 41.5 43.4 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.9 17.5 -0.2 49.1 47.1 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.0 14.4 -0.2 44.7 47.2 14.5 15.1 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.7 18.2 -0.2 49.7 47.4 14.9 15.7 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.0 17.3 0.2 54.6 53.4 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 12.8 13.5 -0.3 44.0 45.8 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.1 19.1 -0.4 50.0 45.2 15.4 16.1 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------