***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 18.4 -0.6 41.3 42.3 15.6 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.7 18.3 -0.5 44.7 43.5 15.3 15.9 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.1 18.8 -0.5 43.4 43.6 16.7 17.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.1 16.5 0.1 51.2 50.8 12.0 13.0 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.2 16.6 -0.3 43.2 45.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 14.3 -0.1 47.9 48.6 12.3 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.1 18.3 -0.6 43.5 41.8 15.3 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.5 14.1 -0.3 41.5 44.6 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.6 16.7 -0.3 41.8 45.5 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.5 15.1 -0.2 44.2 47.2 14.4 15.8 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.3 16.3 -0.4 40.7 43.3 13.8 15.6 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.9 15.2 -0.4 40.4 42.9 12.6 13.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.1 14.8 -0.5 37.3 40.8 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.0 16.3 -0.5 41.5 42.5 15.6 16.3 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.3 18.4 -0.1 48.7 48.7 16.1 17.3 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.5 15.7 -0.3 40.8 44.4 15.0 15.6 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.6 18.3 -0.3 47.4 46.6 15.7 16.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.9 14.2 -0.2 44.6 46.4 12.8 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.4 15.6 18.5 -0.5 44.5 43.8 15.0 16.1 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.1 12.2 -0.2 44.2 46.4 9.1 10.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.1 17.8 -0.5 40.2 42.9 14.3 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.4 18.3 -0.3 46.7 45.9 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.1 18.4 -0.5 42.1 43.1 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.6 16.3 -0.4 42.7 44.2 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.0 17.3 -0.5 40.1 43.4 14.7 15.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.9 14.1 -0.5 34.9 39.5 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.0 17.8 -0.5 39.9 42.8 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.9 17.1 0.0 50.5 50.6 13.7 14.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.4 13.6 -0.1 45.6 47.6 12.0 12.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.0 18.6 -0.6 43.4 42.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------