***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 13.0 12.6 16.0 -2.4 7.2 10.5 14.6 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 12.4 11.9 15.7 -2.5 7.7 8.8 15.0 15.6 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 14.9 14.1 16.3 -2.3 6.6 10.0 16.5 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 10.8 10.5 14.0 -1.8 14.7 17.5 11.7 13.3 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 11.7 11.1 14.6 -2.0 11.2 15.3 12.9 14.3 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 11.1 11.0 12.0 -1.7 16.0 17.5 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 13.2 12.2 15.7 -2.6 6.3 8.0 15.0 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 6.6 6.2 11.7 -2.0 10.0 11.9 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 13.4 13.1 14.9 -1.9 12.2 15.4 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 13.4 13.0 12.9 -1.9 12.3 14.3 14.1 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 13.4 12.8 14.2 -2.1 9.4 11.4 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 11.2 10.9 12.7 -2.2 8.8 11.1 11.9 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 12.4 12.1 13.1 -2.1 10.0 12.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 13.8 13.8 14.4 -1.8 16.3 16.4 14.7 16.2 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 14.9 14.7 16.3 -2.0 15.1 16.4 15.7 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 13.7 13.4 13.8 -2.1 10.6 12.8 14.1 15.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 13.8 13.3 15.6 -2.4 8.3 9.5 15.9 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.2 -1.8 15.4 16.0 12.4 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 13.3 12.8 15.9 -2.4 7.7 8.9 15.0 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 7.9 7.4 10.2 -1.9 12.6 14.5 8.8 9.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 13.2 12.3 15.7 -2.1 8.4 12.1 13.8 15.2 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 12.9 12.5 15.9 -2.3 7.8 9.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 12.7 12.1 15.9 -2.4 8.1 9.8 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 13.9 13.6 14.4 -1.9 11.9 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 13.1 12.0 15.2 -2.3 9.0 12.7 13.9 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 12.4 12.1 12.0 -2.0 11.5 14.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 12.1 12.0 15.5 -2.3 9.0 11.9 14.4 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 12.2 12.0 14.8 -1.8 15.7 17.7 13.4 13.8 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 10.8 10.1 11.4 -1.8 12.4 14.5 11.6 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 13.2 12.6 16.0 -2.5 7.5 8.7 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------