***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 28.7 86.6 56.2 44.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 24.2 48.5 32.4 92.0 55.6 45.7 34.7 43.2 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 30.2 42.4 29.9 92.0 58.6 47.0 32.7 38.5 48.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 41.5 55.5 29.8 88.5 57.1 49.2 45.1 52.4 58.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 26.6 45.0 30.1 89.8 59.4 49.1 25.8 35.7 53.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 59.5 61.1 41.9 103.8 59.4 53.1 36.6 53.3 65.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 26.5 42.9 32.8 90.0 55.5 45.0 25.1 38.8 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 42.4 76.3 33.4 96.4 59.9 52.4 43.2 60.2 98.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 30.3 49.8 30.9 89.2 60.2 47.7 29.9 43.7 54.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 32.1 56.9 36.0 94.4 61.6 50.5 42.9 50.5 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 28.2 47.7 26.0 89.3 59.3 49.3 26.7 40.7 50.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 34.0 54.9 24.3 91.4 58.0 50.6 31.7 48.7 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.7 43.5 31.1 97.9 61.6 51.6 24.4 35.8 45.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 35.8 63.7 38.4 95.1 54.6 48.8 41.0 59.3 80.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 38.4 39.6 25.8 85.2 59.5 50.5 18.3 26.8 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 37.6 38.3 29.5 94.3 59.3 50.9 26.1 33.4 40.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 31.6 57.7 31.4 88.8 52.7 44.6 34.7 49.1 67.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 34.8 62.0 43.7 98.3 61.4 51.4 38.1 53.0 64.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 29.4 55.7 31.0 91.4 54.3 45.8 35.9 52.7 68.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 52.7 57.1 47.4 106.5 63.4 56.1 33.4 44.0 58.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 29.8 44.9 28.6 90.7 60.4 47.9 33.6 36.6 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 37.3 52.4 30.8 87.5 50.8 44.6 38.0 52.1 60.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 33.1 47.7 29.5 90.4 52.4 46.1 31.6 45.0 51.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 33.7 60.6 37.8 95.2 56.7 48.7 40.4 52.3 77.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 33.9 48.2 33.8 89.6 57.3 47.1 36.3 43.8 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 43.6 44.8 25.8 105.3 62.1 54.0 25.6 38.8 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 28.2 44.4 33.9 87.4 54.7 45.0 32.3 39.9 56.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.2 33.8 28.2 87.2 58.5 49.9 23.4 28.0 43.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 50.9 87.8 45.2 101.3 62.6 53.0 60.0 76.3 90.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.9 45.1 31.6 90.9 55.2 45.7 25.4 36.7 50.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------