***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 65.5 63.2 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.0 4.4 69.2 60.7 48.1 2.0 5.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.6 17.6 3.7 64.8 64.9 48.1 2.1 7.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.0 14.9 3.4 66.1 63.1 49.2 5.5 9.6 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.7 3.7 67.7 63.6 48.7 3.2 9.0 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.1 16.2 5.2 76.3 65.5 50.0 2.9 9.9 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.2 11.3 4.6 71.0 59.6 48.2 2.1 4.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 19.9 4.8 82.5 64.8 51.0 9.0 16.6 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.7 16.3 4.3 71.9 66.2 48.2 5.4 9.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 19.0 5.0 75.4 64.1 49.2 6.8 14.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.9 19.7 3.0 65.5 63.3 48.9 5.5 13.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.7 16.7 3.1 72.3 67.3 51.5 3.4 9.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.6 3.5 69.0 67.2 50.6 1.1 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.0 15.3 5.7 75.7 61.2 50.6 4.7 11.6 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 17.0 2.9 68.3 68.3 49.1 6.1 8.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.2 3.2 68.2 65.4 49.3 3.0 8.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.7 11.3 4.9 72.0 60.3 48.4 2.2 6.6 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.1 6.4 77.2 63.6 50.6 4.3 10.4 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.8 4.1 67.6 61.7 48.3 2.1 7.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 18.4 7.4 93.0 65.5 52.3 4.6 12.3 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 15.2 3.8 70.2 67.5 48.9 5.6 9.4 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.3 4.9 71.3 60.6 48.9 4.1 7.0 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 13.0 3.9 68.5 62.9 49.6 2.0 5.3 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.3 5.3 71.2 62.6 50.4 4.6 13.1 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 13.7 4.5 70.7 62.7 49.1 1.7 8.7 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.1 18.2 2.8 73.4 70.6 54.6 5.0 9.6 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.2 9.6 4.6 69.3 61.8 48.4 5.8 8.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.2 3.2 66.6 64.3 48.7 1.6 5.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.7 24.4 6.6 79.5 63.1 51.0 9.5 18.2 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.8 4.1 66.8 62.3 47.9 1.6 6.5 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------