***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.8 103.6 72.1 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 5.4 22.6 8.9 102.3 74.1 45.8 3.3 14.6 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 18.9 8.2 105.3 72.5 49.5 0.7 6.7 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 11.8 7.3 81.2 69.6 51.6 1.4 5.1 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.1 14.7 7.4 80.3 67.6 49.9 1.5 5.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 10.5 9.2 82.9 66.0 52.4 0.8 4.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 22.2 9.3 106.2 73.3 45.5 0.7 5.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.1 16.6 8.3 84.4 66.2 49.7 2.5 6.7 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.0 7.6 84.1 69.1 48.8 1.1 7.9 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 17.0 9.0 87.3 67.4 49.6 4.1 8.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.3 13.9 6.6 81.2 68.7 50.6 1.8 5.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.6 11.6 5.9 76.8 67.8 49.8 1.4 3.4 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.5 10.5 6.8 78.8 68.0 50.1 1.0 6.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.5 15.4 10.0 94.0 64.1 48.4 0.8 5.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.3 9.2 6.2 83.6 71.9 53.8 0.0 0.6 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.0 8.9 6.6 77.4 67.8 50.9 1.7 4.1 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.8 17.6 8.2 91.9 70.0 44.4 2.9 7.6 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.9 19.9 10.8 91.2 64.9 49.0 4.2 10.4 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 23.8 8.6 100.8 73.3 46.7 0.6 8.3 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.0 11.2 87.9 63.2 47.1 5.8 11.6 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.0 21.4 7.1 92.4 71.5 50.9 0.7 3.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.1 11.8 8.0 90.4 68.9 43.9 1.7 5.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.9 17.0 8.5 99.9 68.7 47.6 0.2 4.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.1 18.0 9.9 99.7 66.6 50.3 3.9 10.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.4 14.1 8.5 95.4 71.5 49.8 0.4 3.6 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.3 12.7 5.9 96.1 72.6 51.6 0.5 5.1 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.4 24.4 9.0 103.2 72.0 48.2 0.3 2.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.7 10.1 6.7 77.7 69.7 52.5 0.8 5.8 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.8 30.8 10.8 89.5 62.5 47.9 4.2 15.3 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.9 17.1 8.9 105.6 74.1 46.3 1.2 5.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------