***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 139.8 75.2 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.5 11.6 12.2 143.9 72.3 53.4 1.0 4.0 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.1 25.0 10.9 143.1 74.5 51.9 0.5 4.5 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.5 30.7 10.6 133.4 75.4 53.5 1.2 5.4 20.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 0.9 20.5 11.3 148.7 77.2 56.0 0.0 2.0 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.3 28.4 16.7 148.4 77.1 59.7 1.1 6.3 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.8 18.6 12.4 143.8 74.7 53.1 1.7 4.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.3 32.5 12.3 145.4 77.2 59.0 3.4 11.6 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 0.8 24.5 11.8 150.6 76.3 53.1 0.2 2.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 35.4 13.4 150.9 77.7 57.4 0.4 5.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.8 23.3 10.3 148.9 77.0 57.5 0.2 2.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.9 18.6 9.6 145.1 76.5 58.2 0.0 2.5 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.0 12.3 12.7 146.6 77.2 57.7 0.8 2.8 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.4 38.3 14.2 157.2 79.1 55.6 1.9 9.4 31.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.6 8.6 114.6 75.6 55.1 0.9 7.5 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 13.0 11.6 146.3 78.8 57.4 0.5 4.3 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.8 26.8 12.1 146.3 74.0 53.3 2.2 5.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 32.3 16.1 151.3 78.4 58.1 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.2 21.7 11.4 141.9 72.9 52.0 1.9 5.7 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.4 16.7 16.4 144.1 76.7 59.4 2.1 6.9 11.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 21.3 10.7 154.5 74.4 53.9 0.9 8.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 24.1 11.6 140.4 74.3 52.6 3.8 6.6 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.2 21.7 10.8 147.2 74.7 51.0 1.4 8.0 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.8 31.1 14.0 152.4 77.4 56.4 0.9 7.7 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.1 17.2 12.1 130.8 72.9 50.8 0.3 10.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.8 18.5 9.5 136.5 73.6 57.9 1.6 5.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 17.1 12.4 130.7 73.6 51.4 2.8 6.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.1 27.2 10.2 130.6 77.7 54.9 2.2 5.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 31.1 16.9 153.8 79.0 58.8 6.7 10.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.4 15.4 11.8 139.8 74.1 52.4 3.2 6.3 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------