***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 51.0 48.8 36.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.8 3.9 6.9 59.1 47.7 34.9 2.5 6.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.5 7.2 62.8 54.4 39.7 1.9 7.3 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 8.1 8.5 73.6 58.6 46.8 1.0 4.2 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.7 8.2 7.7 68.2 55.7 43.8 1.5 3.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.4 10.9 96.4 65.1 56.1 2.9 4.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 0.9 2.7 6.5 51.7 42.6 34.0 1.4 3.6 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.4 8.1 77.4 56.6 49.3 3.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.5 7.1 61.0 50.0 40.7 1.0 5.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 6.3 8.6 70.1 53.1 46.4 1.0 6.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.5 6.1 64.2 55.3 42.7 0.6 3.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.7 9.4 5.7 71.4 58.5 46.1 0.0 3.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 2.4 3.5 8.2 86.3 63.0 50.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.1 8.5 64.8 51.4 39.8 1.7 8.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 4.9 7.5 8.1 72.8 63.5 50.1 0.8 1.9 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.0 8.1 79.7 59.5 48.4 0.2 1.8 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.2 3.9 6.3 55.0 47.3 33.1 3.0 4.3 10.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.0 10.3 76.4 56.4 46.3 1.3 5.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.4 6.8 60.9 49.9 35.2 2.7 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.8 12.4 100.4 61.6 55.1 2.3 3.9 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.0 7.0 60.9 51.0 42.2 1.4 4.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.3 4.0 6.2 55.9 46.7 34.8 1.0 4.3 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.7 9.0 6.2 56.7 50.5 33.8 1.3 8.9 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.1 8.6 65.7 52.2 40.9 1.7 6.1 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.0 8.8 66.3 57.0 43.3 4.2 6.8 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 2.2 6.2 7.7 100.6 69.5 58.1 0.0 0.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.9 7.8 56.3 50.7 38.8 2.7 5.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.4 8.6 8.2 73.1 60.7 49.3 0.1 4.4 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.0 11.0 82.6 58.4 48.4 4.4 13.4 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.7 4.6 6.9 58.1 48.8 36.3 2.3 5.1 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------